Why supply chain resilience is more than a buzzword; it's a competitive advantage

Looking ahead to 2026, the global supply chain enters a chapter defined by relative stability but underscored by persistent uncertainty. After years of pandemic-driven instability and inflationary pressures, transportation rates across major modes have shown fewer large swings. However, this improvement does not guarantee the absence of volatility or complete smooth sailing.

C.H. Robinson, the leader in Lean AI supply chains, anticipates that structural forces - tariffs, trade policy, and geopolitical disruptions - will continue to shape how goods move around the world. After years of pandemic-driven instability and inflationary pressures, transportation rates across major modes have shown fewer large swings. However, this improvement does not guarantee the absence of volatility or complete smooth sailing.

Air Freight: E-Commerce Keeps Demand Strong

International air traffic rose by 5.1% year-over-year, with Asia Pacific carriers leading growth at 7.4%. Air cargo continues to benefit from global eCommerce expansion, particularly outside the U.S. However, regulatory changes - such as the removal of duty-free exemptions for low-value shipments - have reshaped trade lanes and triggered capacity adjustments.

Demand remains strong, but these shifts could drive further consolidation and nearshoring strategies in 2026, especially among large retailers. It's a reminder that agility matters: the ability to pivot between modes and regions remains a competitive advantage.

For example, C.H. Robinson now offers a weekly B747 freighter charter from Singapore to the U.S., ensuring customers have stable, secured air capacity when demand is at its peak. If your business is navigating tight air markets or looking for dependable lift to the U.S during this new peak season.

Ocean Freight: Stability With Clear Caveats

Ocean shipping remains the backbone of global trade, and in 2026, supply is expected to outpace demand with 1.5 million TEUs slated to join the global fleet. Normally, that would mean lower rates, but the picture is much more complex.

Evolving tariff and trade policies will continue to influence market demand and shape how ocean carriers allocate their global capacity - decisions that flow directly into shippers' planning cycles.

For businesses, this means planning for volatility even in a market that looks calmer on the surface. Flexibility in routing and procurement will be essential.

Trade Policy: The Wildcard

Perhaps the most significant driver of uncertainty for global supply chains is trade policy. Recent U.S. scrutiny of Australia underscores how fluid the landscape remains. America's largest primary aluminium producer has challenged the "subsidies and incentives" offered under Australia's Future Made in Australia program, urging the U.S. government to classify these measures as foreign trade barriers in the 2026 National Trade Estimate Report.

At the same time, longstanding tensions over Australia's access to the U.S. market - including persistent Section 232 tariffs on aluminium, criticism of Australia's pharmaceutical pricing system, and concerns over the News Media Bargaining Code - highlight how quickly the environment can shift. If USTR intensifies its actions, Australian exporters could face additional scrutiny and will need actionable insights fast.

Elsewhere, evolving trade incentives continue to reshape global sourcing. India's Production Linked Incentive (PLI) program is attracting technology and automotive manufacturers from the EU, Japan, and beyond. In Southeast Asia, a dense network of trade agreements is prompting companies to rethink tariff optimisation and compliance strategies.

Sustainability requirements are also changing. Regulations under the European Union Emission Trading System (ETS) began increasing incrementally in 2024. In the new year, any shipping company operating to or from EU or EEA ports will be required to monitor, report, and verify 100% of greenhouse gas emissions.

All these developments can influence sourcing decisions, cost structures, and inventory strategies. Companies that stay ahead of these shifts and build contingency plans will be better positioned to manage risk.

AI-Powered Logistics: A Foundation for Resilience

Tools like C.H. Robinson's Always-On Logistics Planner - a digital workforce of 30+ connected AI agents - are already performing millions of shipping tasks that defied automation for decades. Our Agentic Supply Chain Solutions provide deeper intelligence and broader impact across the logistics lifecycle, from planning and procurement to delivery and replenishment.

Customers leveraging an Agentic Supply Chain are already seeing meaningful benefits, including:

• Faster speed-to-market: Planning and booking reduced from hours to seconds, securing more favourable rates, carriers, and delivery appointments.
• Smarter cost optimisation: Dynamic mode and lane selection, pricing, and freight consolidation help capture hidden savings.
• Better visibility and control: A unified freight view supported by predictive insights enables proactive decisions.
• Greater agility and resilience: Always-on operations allow instant responses to shifts in demand or market conditions, with systems anticipating disruptions and rerouting freight before delays occur.

Even the most advanced shippers struggle with manual workflows and siloed systems. AI is closing that gap.

Resilience as Strategy

In this environment, supply chain resilience is more than a buzzword; it's a competitive advantage. 

Shippers should be prepared to shift between ocean, air, and multimodal options such as sea-air and LCL consolidation as conditions evolve, while ensuring customs, inland transport, and warehousing strategies are integrated to avoid bottlenecks. With tariffs and trade tensions reshaping sourcing patterns, evaluating alternatives in Southeast Asia, India, Mexico, and Canada - and adopting a tiered sourcing hierarchy grounded in geopolitical stability, business continuity, and cost efficiency - can enable more strategic adjustments, supported by PO management technology that maintains visibility across suppliers and regions. At the same time, AI-driven scenario planning and digital visibility tools can significantly improve risk anticipation and cost optimisation, with AI agents handling many complex processes faster and more reliably than manual workflows. Proactively identifying vulnerabilities, alternative routes, and contingency plans for geopolitical or climate-driven events helps minimise financial losses and operational delays in an increasingly unpredictable trade environment.

2026 will not be defined by runaway volatility, but by structural forces that require foresight and adaptability. Ocean and air freight, inland transportation, and Customs will remain critical. Tariffs will continue shaping trade flows. Geopolitical risks - from the Suez Canal to regional conflicts - will demand proactive planning. For C.H. Robinson, the charge is clear: build supply chains that are not only efficient but resilient. Invest in visibility, embrace innovation, and stay agile in the face of change.