Australian exporters can't control disruption. They can control how they respond

Australian exporters were hit from two directions in 2026. From early March, carriers introduced emergency conflict and war-risk surcharges as conflict disrupted shipping around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. ANL, which is owned by CMA CGM, introduced surcharges of up to US$4,000 per refrigerated container on shipments to and from affected Middle Eastern destinations. Meanwhile, US trade policy shifted sharply between February and July, as the Supreme Court struck down the previous emergency tariffs, Washington introduced a temporary import surcharge, and a new Section 301 tariff took effect in July. Neither disruption was within exporters' control, but the year highlighted what separated those who coped from those who struggled.

The Middle East pushed costs onto cargo already at sea

The surcharges hurt, but the timing hurt more. Some applied to cargo already booked or on the water, leaving exporters with little opportunity to reprice shipments or renegotiate contracts agreed months earlier. Agricultural exporters shipping meat, grain and fresh produce faced additional pressure as refrigerated freight costs increased.

The costs didn't stay offshore. Higher fuel prices brought emergency fuel surcharges across long-haul trades, and in July ANL increased its inland emergency fuel surcharges on road and rail movements to and from Australian ports. A conflict on the other side of the world was now affecting the cost of moving a container from an Australian wharf to its next destination.

For exporters operating on fixed-price contracts, this exposed a fundamental problem: freight costs can change much faster than commercial agreements. Businesses unable to pass on additional charges, switch routes or adjust transport arrangements had few options to protect their margins.

What 2026 taught us

Shocks no longer arrive one at a time. An exporter facing a conflict surcharge in March could also be dealing with higher domestic fuel costs and changing US import tariffs by July. The businesses that coped weren't immune to these pressures. They were better able to understand how a change in one part of the supply chain would affect costs, inventory and delivery commitments elsewhere.

The US tariff timeline illustrates just how quickly the rules can change. In February, the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Washington subsequently introduced a temporary 10% import surcharge, which took effect on 24 February. On 24 July, a new 12.5% tariff under Section 301 took effect for Australian goods within scope, subject to exemptions. These were distinct policy changes, not simply successive increases to one unchanged tariff regime. 

The gaps between disruptions have also narrowed. Since COVID-19, businesses have had to contend with pandemic-related disruption, Red Sea shipping attacks, shifting trade policies and renewed conflict in the Middle East. Treating each event as a one-off means planning for a period of stability that cannot be assumed.

Commercial agreements still matter, but they cannot eliminate every risk. A freight rate, surcharge clause or tariff exemption may appear settled before changing with little notice. Some changes can affect shipments already booked or goods already in transit. Contracts need to be supported by contingency plans, a clear understanding of who bears additional costs and the ability to reassess decisions as circumstances change.

Compliance has also become a board-level risk. In July, the US introduced new tariffs following an investigation into whether trading partners had effectively prohibited imports produced with forced labour. Canberra challenged the US assessment, arguing that Australia already had robust laws addressing modern slavery, while announcing reforms to strengthen its own framework. 

The episode showed how regulatory disputes can affect market access and landed costs, not just audit results. Exporters need reliable evidence of where their goods and materials originate, accurate product classifications and a clear understanding of the requirements applying to each market. They must also recognise that errors by a customs broker or freight forwarder can expose the business that owns the goods to financial and regulatory consequences.

What resilience actually takes

Resilience does not depend on predicting the next announcement. It depends on having alternatives in place before they are needed and being able to act on them when conditions change. For Australian exporters, that means combining contingency planning with the operational capability to turn new information into coordinated decisions before disruption affects costs, inventory or customer commitments.

Sourcing illustrates how long building that flexibility can take. Businesses that have relied on a single supply base to keep costs down are increasingly having to weigh those savings against the risks of disruption. Qualifying alternative suppliers, securing additional capacity and developing new freight routes all take time, investment and planning. Waiting until a disruption hits can leave few viable alternatives.

Diversification is not free. Maintaining additional suppliers or securing alternative freight routes can increase operating costs. But the relevant comparison is not simply the price of an alternative against today's cheapest option. It is the cost of maintaining that flexibility against the potential financial and operational consequences of being unable to supply customers when conditions change.

Having alternatives is only part of the equation. Businesses also need the systems and processes to put them into practice. If order, warehouse and transportation management systems operate in isolation, a change to a shipping route, duty rate or product's availability can trigger a chain of manual updates and decisions. By the time teams have reconciled the information, assessed the impact and agreed on a response, the opportunity to minimise disruption may have passed.

Connected systems can help bring freight costs, duties, inventory availability and customer commitments into a shared operational picture. This gives teams a clearer view of the trade-offs involved in changing a route, reallocating stock or adjusting fulfilment priorities. Rather than simply identifying a problem, the aim is to help the business determine what to do next and coordinate the response across its operations.

Reliable data underpins those decisions. Exporters need to understand where materials originate, how products are classified and which trade requirements apply to each market. That information must be accurate, accessible and reflected in day-to-day processes, not assembled manually in spreadsheets whenever a shipment is prepared. Speed is of limited value if a business cannot substantiate the origin of its goods or establish the correct duties before they reach the border.

The same principle applies to cost. Consider a manufacturer weighing whether to pay 25% more for 30% of its components to maintain a second supplier. In a stable environment, the premium may be difficult to justify. If losing its primary source could halt production, however, that additional cost may represent worthwhile protection. The right decision depends on the criticality of the component, the availability of alternatives and the potential cost of disruption. Resilience is not about paying more for everything; it is about understanding where the investment is justified.

Nobody can know where tariffs, freight rates or geopolitical tensions will stand this time next year. Australian exporters can, however, improve their ability to respond. That means developing alternative sources and routes, strengthening traceability, understanding exposure to changing trade requirements and connecting the systems that help turn information into coordinated action.

The lesson of 2026 is that resilience is not simply a matter of having a contingency plan. It is the ability to make and execute informed decisions when circumstances change. For exporters facing volatile freight costs and shifting trade rules, that capability could make the difference between absorbing a disruption and allowing it to spread across the business.