Remote goods fraud to rise, eCommerce losses to hit $10B

A new study by Juniper Research has projected that remote physical goods fraud will experience an 18% increase globally between 2024 and 2025, with the value of fraudulent eCommerce transactions for physical goods expected to reach USD $10 billion in 2025.

The research highlights the role of sophisticated fraud tactics such as deepfakes and synthetic IDs in driving this increase. It suggests that implementing liveness detection, an anti-spoofing solution for verifying identities, could be crucial in curbing such fraudulent activities.

The study, part of the "Global Merchant Fraud Prevention Market 2024-2029" report, emphasises the importance of a diverse range of fraud prevention tools to mitigate these financial losses. It also suggests that solutions involving behavioural-linked verification could significantly reduce the impact of fraudulent strategies.

Thomas Wilson, the report author, stated, "eCommerce merchants must couple automated AI defence systems with human-piloted checks. This will combat sophisticated fraud tactics, such as synthetic returns labels and accurately weighted packages, that have enabled fraudsters to receive eCommerce goods for free."

The research further underscores the necessity for fraud prevention vendors to integrate continuous checks, including behavioural analytics, alongside step-up verification via biometrics. This integration is vital to identifying and reacting to fraud patterns in real-time, especially at critical points in the customer journey like the point of payment.

Juniper's research suite is described as the most comprehensive assessment of the merchant fraud prevention market to date. It provides analytical insights and forecasts across 60 countries over the next five years, featuring a detailed "Competitor Leaderboard" and examination of market opportunities.